"Work Anytime Anywhere" ⁽¹⁾

What is the future world going to look like in terms of technology? That's a pretty big question to answer within the confines of this book. But I would like to touch on three main points. First I think technology is going to continue on its path of being smaller, faster, cheaper, and less visible in our everyday world. I also think that the intersection of computing and telecommunications, which we now see as the Internet, will bring about a fundamental shift in perception of distance, just as it will change our perception of time.

Wearable computing is about to enter the new world of work. The traditional interface that has existed between humans and technology is disappearing very rapidly. We first saw wearable computing in the form of space suits won by astronauts. These suits connected astronauts to their spacecraft, to their communications links, and finally, to the planet Earth. Wearable computers briefly appeared within the virtual-reality context of the late 1980s. It's becoming much more serious now, and there are even international symposiums on wearable computers. Remote sensing, data collection systems, military applications, cameras, and adjuncts to sensing abilities are among the major new applications in this field.

As it becomes possible to directly link human sensing systems such as eyes and ears into computing platforms, this trend will grow even faster. Other functions such as embedded defibrillators and computer-enhanced neural communication patterns are probably within three to five years of being a reality.

Many exciting potential applications exist that could help us harness the power of technology and do away with a physical separation between humans and technology. In the long term, I believe that the interface between technology and human biology will become so blurred that it will be difficult to separate a discussion of technology impacts from human evolution.

Death of Distance

The second major shift in technology as we enter the new age of work is going to be the death of distance. The emergence of the distributed work world was the signal that the physical distance between people was no longer a barrier to collaboration. Here's what one journalist has to say about the death of distance:

Relentless technological change is driving down many of the elements in the cost of a telephone call. Already, the cost of carrying an additional call is often so tiny that it might as well be free. More significantly, carrying a call from London to New York costs virtually the same as carrying it from one house to the next. The death of distance as a determinant of the cost of communications will probably be the single most important economic force shaping society in the first half of the next century. It will alter, in ways that are only dimly imaginable, decisions about where people live and work; concepts of national borders; patterns of international trade. Its effects will be as pervasive as those of the discovery of electricity" (Frances Caimcross, "The Death of Distance," The Economist, September 30, 1995,Telecommunications Survey, p. 5.)

If technology begins to fundamentally shift our perceptions of space and time, elusive questions arise about how we come together to work. If it no longer matters where we are or what time it is where we are, a whole new set of interaction possibilities opens up for us. Organizing work teams goes from asking "Where can we get a conference room?" to "Do you know anyone out there who can help us?"

Because time and distance are intricately linked, the death of distance begins to impact the perception of time. It means that we need to learn how to work when time never stops and the work continues elsewhere on the planet while we decide to take a break and sleep, play, or engage in some other activity. Our sense of natural rhythms will be fundamentally altered. Our natural link to the cycles of the moon and the sun will be changed. I cannot predict the impact of these changes, only that they will be far-reaching.

What about the changes in technology? Joseph Coates, one of the most respected futurists, has this to say about long-term technology effects.

Another effect, particularly in the advanced nations, will be the move to distributed work. Information technology makes it practical to reverse the 200-year trend of going to work by bringing the work to the worker. In the USA, for example, 60% of the workforce are information workers. It is now practical to bring the work to perhaps 90% of those workers anywhere. The consequence is not merely a new place to do work, such as the home. Distributed work will alter the structure and organization of communities, the use of transportation, the location of businesses, the activities and organization within the home and even the very structure of housing. For many people, it will effectively fill the locational gap between work and family life." Joseph Coates, "Long Term Technological Trends and Their implications for Management," International Journal o technological Management, vol. 14, no. 6/7/8, 1997, p. 5 82.

In a recent article, Coates has traced the likely outcomes of nine specific information technologies. Take a look at what he sees happening with these key information technologies in Table 6-1. The technologies we see today as being separate will become more highly integrated and more pervasive in our lives. The social/psychological impact of that is, in my opinion, that we will no longer see technology as something separate from people, but as just another aspect of our environment that more closely connects us with each other and with other systems on this planet.

It is my belief that the long-term impact of technology upon the future will be for us to see ourselves as part of something much larger than ourselves. I predict that we'll be more in tune with the effect of our actions on each other and on the environment.

TABLE 6-1 Long-term technological trends and their implications for management.

Information Technology

Technology           Likely outcomes

Fiber optics 

Redistribution of work and work patterns; growth of polycentric cities; less daily commuting; less stress on mass transit and roads; all structures wired for high information activities

Networks 

All infrastructure will be smart

Mechatronics 

All physical devices will sense their internal and external environment and be linked into networks for better monitoring, control, and management

High-speed computers 

Every aspect of urban management will be embraced by scientific models employing highly reliable, large databases

Digitized data 

Facilitates the massive database required for managing urban complexes

Image technology 

Widely used as an adjunct to design, to redesign, to planning; walk-through will be routine for all structures well before they are built

Geographical information systems 

Careful monitoring of all logistics, traffic, goods movement; monitoring for excessive release of heat, chemicals, and other undesirables from buildings and structures

Robotics 

Extensive use in all kinds of physical tasks: housing, construction, site preparation, building, demolition, fires, earthquakes, riots

Artificial intelligence 

Broadly applied to all systems and devices which previously have either depended on human judgment for their effective operation or which have been basically unintelligent, that is, responding to arbitrary routines

Joseph E Coates, Int. J. Technology Management, voL 14, no. 61718, 1997.

(1) "The Future of Work" Charles Grantham - 2000 - pages. 157-160

www.thefutureofwork.net

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